Dem has razor-thin lead over GOP Rep. Mike Lawler in battleground

Democrat Cait Conley has a razor-thin 2-point lead over Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in the race for a New York swing district that could be the key to which party controls Congress in 2027, a new poll found.

The Democratic challenger’s lead in the PIX 11/Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday is within the poll’s margin of error of 4.9 percentage points – showing the election is a nail-biter going into its final four weeks.

The poll, the first released for the suburban 17th congressional district in New York’s Hudson Valley, showed 48% of likely voters back Conley, 46% support Lawler, with 7% undecided. The poll of 400 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, meaning the race could go either way.

The survey was conducted from Sept. 27-29. An enthusiasm gap exists among voters in the district, with those backing Conley looking more jazzed to cast ballots in the Midterm Elections this year, Emerson Polling said.

Respondents who said they are “very excited” to vote in the Nov. 3 election favor Conley by 7 points — 52% to 45%. Voters “somewhat excited” to participate break for Lawler by 12 points, 52% to 40%, according to the poll.

In a potentially troubling sign for Lawler, the GOP incumbent is drawing less crossover support from Democrats than he did in a poll taken in October 2024, when he faced off against ex-Rep Mondaire Jones. “In the 2024 Emerson NY-17 poll, 20% of Democrats supported Rep.

Lawler , while 4% of Republicans supported the Democrat, Mondaire Jones,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In 2026, Democratic crossover support for Lawler fell eight points to 12%, while Republican support for the Democrat rose six points, to 10%.” The economy — jobs, inflation, taxes — was cited as the top issue facing the state by 31% of voters, followed by 23% of respondents who cited “threats to democracy,” 13% immigration and 12% housing affordability.

A majority of voters, 52%, disapprove of US military action in Iran, while 37% support it and 11% are unsure, according to the poll. Lawler’s popularity is split; the survey of 400 likely voters found that 45% have a favorable view of the congressman and 46% an unfavorable view.

Some 44% of voters have a favorable view of Conley , 35% unfavorable, while a sizeable 22% have not formed an opinion. Since Emerson’s October 2024 poll, Lawler’s favorability dropped by seven points, from 52% to 45%, and his unfavorable rating increased four points, from 42% to 46%.

Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is seeking re-election to a second term at the top of the ticket, is not popular in the 17th district, which includes all or parts of Rockland, Putnam, Westchester and Dutchess counties.

Start your day with all you need to know Morning Report delivers the latest news, videos, photos and more. By clicking above you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Some 40% said they do not approve of the job Hochul is doing, while 49% disapprove. “While Governor Hochul is underwater among voters in New York’s 17th district, her approval number has increased significantly since October 2024, from 26% to 40%,” Kimball said.

Only 43% of voters approved of President Trump’s job performance, while 53% disapproved. The neck-and-neck race between Lawler and Conley in a swing district has become one of the most closely watched in the country.

Lawler, a former state assemblyman , is seeking a third term. Conley is a US Army veteran and West Point graduate who worked in the Department of Homeland Security during the Biden administration. It’s her first foray into politics after winning a five-way Democratic primary.

Members of Congress are paid $174,000 a year and serve two-year terms.