Democrats ahead in Texas, Alaska

Recent polling shows Democrats making gains in several states President Donald Trump carried comfortably in 2024, tightening the party’s path to potentially reclaiming the Senate as the midterm elections approach.

A New York Times /Siena College poll of five states — Texas , Alaska , Ohio , Iowa , and Kansas — found Democratic Senate candidates tied or ahead in each race, highlighting a competitive environment in states Trump won by between 11 and 16 percentage points in 2024.

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Mary Peltola leading Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) by 7 points in Alaska, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) by 3 points in Ohio, and Democratic candidates Josh Turek and James Talarico leading Republican opponents by 1 and 6 points, respectively, in Iowa and Texas.

The Kansas race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton was effectively tied. The findings are consistent with other recent polling showing unusually competitive races in several traditionally Republican states.

In Texas, for example, recent surveys have generally shown Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton within a few points of each other. A Fox News poll conducted Sept. 24 to 28 put Talarico ahead 51% to 49% among likely voters.

Across the five states surveyed by Times /Siena, Trump had a 40% approval rating, compared with 57% who viewed him unfavorably. The poll found his approval had declined by 5 points since the newspaper’s previous surveys in four of the states in June.

In all five states, voters were more likely to say the Democratic candidate “has good character” than the Republican candidate. In four of the five states, voters were also more likely to describe the Republican candidate as “too far to the right” than to describe the Democrat as “too far to the left.” Ohio was the exception, where the two candidates were essentially even on that measure.

In Texas, Talarico has remained competitive despite a major Republican campaign effort aimed at defining him negatively. The Times /Siena polling found 40% of voters considered Talarico “too far to the left,” roughly unchanged from June, while 47% said Paxton was “too far to the right.” Ohio has emerged as another notable battleground, with Brown challenging Husted in a state Trump won with more than 55% of the vote in 2024.

The Ohio race has also brought artificial intelligence and data centers into the campaign. The poll found voters preferred Brown to Husted by 10 points on issues involving AI and data centers. Ohio has become a focal point in the national debate over data center growth and its effect on electricity demand and local communities.

Alaska presents a different dynamic. Peltola’s 7-point lead in the Times /Siena poll follows a top-four primary in which she finished ahead of Sullivan. Alaska’s general election will also feature another candidate named Dan Sullivan, creating an unusual ballot issue that the Times said prompted pollsters to specify that respondents were being asked about the incumbent.

Kansas was the closest of the five races in the Times /Siena survey, with Marshall and Hamilton effectively tied. Hamilton, a first-time Democratic candidate and Methodist megachurch pastor, had the highest net favorability rating among the candidates tested, while 28% of likely voters said they had not heard enough about him to have an opinion.