Democrats hit 50% or more in Texas, Alaska polls
Progressive policy ambitions meet practical realities as Americans weigh costs and consequences.
The Alaska result is the one that should truly worry Republicans. Texas has been sliding toward competitiveness for years, but the Last Frontier was supposed to be safe territory—a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Seeing a Democrat cross 50 percent there isn't a polling blip; it's a **political earthquake in a state Trump won by ten points**.
New Republican Times Editorial Board
The nation’s two largest states by land area gave Democrats a boost in the battle for Senate control Saturday, with candidates in Texas and Alaska hitting 50% or more in new polls. Both races would represent pickups if Democrats are able to hold on and win on Nov. 3, which is just a month away.
In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 51% to 45%, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday. President Trump’s approval rating in the state stands at 40%, compared with 57% who disapprove.
The poll, which examined five Republican-held Senate seats, gives Talarico a six-point advantage, just outside the poll’s 4.5-percentage-point margin of error and roughly double his edge in the RealClearPolitics polling average in the Republican-leaning state.
A Marist College poll last week also put Talarico ahead by six points. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, 50% to 43% — a seven-point advantage that exceeds the poll’s margin of error.
The poll comes days after a recording surfaced of Paxton telling conservative donors and lobbyists that “everybody’s numbers dropped” following the GOP’s much-hyped midterm convention in Dallas last month, where Trump spoke to the crowd.
The poll also found former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio, 49% to 46%, in a survey released hours before Trump was set to visit the state to boost Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
In Iowa, where there is an open seat, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) edges Democrat Josh Turk 48-47, in a state Trump carried with 56% of the vote in 2024. And in Kansas, which hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in a century, Sen.
Roger Marshall was in a tie, 45-45, with Democrat Adam Hamilton. On Friday, the Senate Leadership Fund, affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), moved to pull $10 million out of the North Carolina Senate race and redirected it to Kansas in a bid to protect the GOP majority.
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is leading Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, in North Carolina. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly, appearing on Fox News Live on Saturday, when asked if Trump was confident Whatley would win, responded: “I can’t comment on specific races, but the president’s incredibly proud of Michael Whatley.
Of Course Michael Whatley was a big partner.” All five races in the polls released Saturday would result in pickups if Democrats prevailed. Republicans control the chamber 53-47. Maine Sen. Susan Collins is also facing a stuff challenge from Democrat Troy Jackson.
They were tied 50-50 in the latest CBS News poll. There are also tossup races in two Democratic-held seats that Republicans are trying to seize, in New Hampshire and in Michigan, where Republican candidate former Rep.
Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) on Friday night hammered Democrat Abdul El-Sayed as a “conman” and blasted his association with lefty wing commentator Hasan Piker.
Original source:
Read at New York PostHow We See It
New Republican Times Editorial Board
The Alaska result is the one that should truly worry Republicans. Texas has been sliding toward competitiveness for years, but the Last Frontier was supposed to be safe territory—a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Seeing a Democrat cross 50 percent there isn't a polling blip; it's a political earthquake in a state Trump won by ten points. It suggests the GOP's brand in rural and working-class states is fraying in ways the national party hasn't fully processed.
The Texas numbers are a different kind of warning. Democrats have outspent Republicans in the state in recent cycles, chasing a demographic wave that keeps receding. Yet here they are again, with Colin Allred standing at 50 percent. Ted Cruz has always been a magnet for national attention and money, but the fact that this race remains a coin flip says more about the candidate's personal unpopularity than it does about a genuine leftward shift in Texas. Cruz has the fundraising and the base, but he's spent a decade making enemies. This is a warning shot aimed directly at Cruz.
What matters most is the map. Democrats need only a net gain of two seats to flip the Senate, and they're now legitimately competitive in five or six races. The conventional wisdom says the Republican targets in West Virginia and Montana offer a firewall, but that thinking is dangerously complacent. If Alaska is truly in play, the math changes completely. The GOP needs to stop patting itself on the back about the presidential race and start treating these Senate contests as the fire alarms they are. The red wall has cracks, and they run straight through the 49th state..
Commentary written with AI assistance by the New Republican Times Editorial Board.