GOP fortress is under threat in one key red state, and these

The wailing from national Democrats about turning Texas blue is a late-summer ritual, but James Talarico is a little different. He’s young, from Round Rock, and he talks like a local. That’s why this chatter is worth paying attention to, even if the last few cycles taught us not to trust it. The maps are already being drawn, and every one of them runs through Black and Hispanic voters.

Those voters aren’t a delivery system for the Democratic Party. They care about schools, their jobs, border security, and the cost of everything. Republicans have been making real inroads with Hispanic voters in South Texas, and the old “Texas is turning blue” math depends on them staying angry enough to turn out for a party that keeps offering them nothing. Talarico is trying to thread a needle by sounding moderate, but he’s still running as the candidate of a national party whose border policy is a disaster.

The GOP should not panic, but it also shouldn’t coast. If Black and Hispanic voters turn out in huge numbers for Talarico, it’s because Republicans gave them a reason by being asleep at the wheel. If they stay home or split their tickets, the 30-year drought rolls on. Texas is only a fortress if Republicans act like they have to win it. The chance is there, but it has to be earned with something more than the same old rally lines.