Paxton snubbed from Texas fundraising event with George W. Bush

The math here isn't complicated, and yet the message from Dallas was loud and clear: George W. Bush and John Cornyn would rather raise money for Senate candidates in Vermont, Maryland, and Minnesota than stand next to the sitting Attorney General of their own state. That is a peculiar kind of snub. Paxton has won three statewide elections in Texas. He ran the legal war against the federal overreach that defined the last administration. If you are putting together a list of Texas Republicans worth backing, he is not someone who needs an introduction.

But this wasn't about a list, was it? Bush’s brand of Republicanism never had much use for the grass-roots energy that Paxton represents, and Cornyn has spent a career trying to keep the party’s base at arm’s length. The fundraiser was a perfectly pleasant affair for the donor class, a chance to show that the old guard can still gather. The problem is that voters notice when their own are left off the invitation. They parse the symbolism, and they know a cold shoulder when they see one. This isn't a primary fight, but it is a preview of the internal struggle that never fully goes away.

The smarter play would have been to keep it simple: show up for the whole ticket, or don't show up at all. Instead, we saw a former president and a sitting senator send a message that the party’s energy is not their priority. That is their right, of course. But turnout is a two-way street. If the establishment is going to treat its own state’s nominee like an inconvenience, they shouldn’t be surprised when the voters they need return the favor. Winning coalitions aren't built by skipping your own state's table..