POLL: Democrats lead or tie Senate races in GOP-leaning states
Progressive policy ambitions meet practical realities as Americans weigh costs and consequences.
Democrats are ahead or even in five Senate races in states that should be Republican layups. One month out, that should make some folks in Washington very nervous. But before anyone hyperventilates, remember that the same pollsters told us 2022 was going to be a red wave.
New Republican Times Editorial Board
by EMMA KOPPELMAN | The National News Desk AUSTIN, TEXAS - MAY 26: Voting signage is seen near the South Austin Recreation Center on May 26, 2026 in Austin, Texas. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton faces incumbent Sen.
John Cornyn in this year's Republican primary runoff. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images) 0 Comment Share topics: Democrats Senate Midterms Polls Texas Alaska Ohio Trump WASHINGTON (TNND) — With one month until the midterms, New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats leading or tied in five Senate races in Republican-leaning states , potentially expanding their paths to regain Senate control.
Democrats lead by 6 points in Texas, 7 points in Alaska and 3 points in Ohio. Republicans lead Iowa by 1 point, and Kansas is tied. The Ohio, Iowa and Kansas results are within their polls’ margins of error.
Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control while defending their current seats in key battlegrounds. Across the five states, 49% of voters said they want a candidate who would check President Donald Trump, compared with 27% who preferred a candidate who supports him.
Trump’s approval ranged from 38% to 41%, while disapproval ranged from 55% to 60%. The polls found cost of living and the economy were voters’ top issues. Democrats held a 24-point advantage among independents and were more trusted on cost of living; Republicans had a 3-point edge on immigration.
The surveys were conducted Sept. 21-Oct. 1 among 2,946 likely voters, with state-level margins of error ranging from 4.5 to 5.1 points.
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New Republican Times Editorial Board
Democrats are ahead or even in five Senate races in states that should be Republican layups. One month out, that should make some folks in Washington very nervous. But before anyone hyperventilates, remember that the same pollsters told us 2022 was going to be a red wave. It wasn't. Polling in these states has an agenda, and it usually leans toward manufacturing Democratic momentum.
That doesn't mean Republicans get a free pass. Some of these races are close because the GOP is fielding candidates who can't raise money, can't stay on message, or keep acting like the general election is a primary. In Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida, the left is spending millions on abortion ads and calling every Republican a threat to democracy. It is working in the suburbs. And if we're honest, too many Republican campaigns are running against the media instead of for a governing plan.
The answer isn't to blame the polls or the "liberal press" and call it a day. That's lazy. The voters in these states love Trump, but they still need a reason to show up for the Senate candidate. If the GOP loses a red seat, it will be because the candidate didn't connect on kitchen table issues like inflation, crime, and the border. Stop fundraising off your own voters and actually talk to them. The data is a warning, not a death sentence. But it is a warning we should take seriously before the last month slips away.
Commentary written with AI assistance by the New Republican Times Editorial Board.