Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Alaska and South Carolina Senate

Two more Senate races shifted toward Democrats, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings published Tuesday, signaling Republicans’ uphill battle in maintaining power in Washington.

The Alaska race, where Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) faces a challenge from Democrat Mary Peltola, moved from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democrat.” The South Carolina race, which features Republican Darline Graham Nordone against Democratic candidate Annie Andrews, moved from “Safe Republican” to “Leans Republican,” according to the University of Virginia Center for Politics election forecaster. The development follows the forecaster’s move to shift several other battleground races in Democrats’ favor, boosting Abdul el Sayed’s chances in Michigan and Josh Turek in Iowa.

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The forecaster credited its most recent decision to tilt the historically firmly red South Carolina seat more in Democrats’ favor to its view that Graham, who is seeking to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), is a “flawed” candidate, citing lackluster polling.

The change in the Alaska Senate race is less surprising. Sullivan is running for reelection in a race featuring Peltola, a fairly centrist Democrat and another rival with the same name as the senator.

That development has triggered a lawsuit from Republicans concerned that Democrats are using the other Dan Sullivan to confuse the electorate and pull critical votes from the incumbent senator in what is expected to be a tight election come November.

The forecaster credited its move to shift the race more in Peltola’s favor to polling, her performance in the primary, and the fact that the “fake” Dan Sullivan will also be on the ballot next month.

“The August primary provided another encouraging data point for Peltola, who won 49.5% of the vote to Sullivan’s 41.4%. The caveat is that another Dan Sullivan, who received 2.5% as an unaffiliated candidate, was also on the ballot and will advance into the top-four general election,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote. “It is possible that some Democrats were strategically voting for the ‘fake’ Dan Sullivan, so Peltola’s near-50% showing was notable. The ‘fake’ Dan Sullivan could have also attracted some lower-information voters that meant to back the incumbent. Overall, the mix of candidates on the November ballot helps Peltola, as she is the only Democrat listed.”

The forecaster last month shifted eleven House races toward Democrats, as Republicans fight to defy historical precedent, in which the party in power typically loses the midterms. That ratings change impacted races from Virginia and Montana to Pennsylvania and California.

In the latest ratings shift targeting the upper chamber, the forecaster said Republicans now need to win more toss-up races to keep their Senate majority than Democrats need to win in order to flip it. Republicans need three of the four races rated as toss-ups to claim a 50-50 majority with the vice presidential tiebreaker, while Democrats need to win two of the four to clinch a 51-49 majority, assuming each side also wins their current leaners.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) on Monday revealed he is pressing President Donald Trump for more funding towards battleground races, noting that GOP efforts to ensure Republicans win have “gotten very expensive.” Texas is particularly notable in terms of money being funneled into the battle, as Republicans fight to keep Democratic state Sen. James Talarico from flipping Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) seat blue.

Thune this week expressed confidence Republicans will keep the Senate, despite polling indicating many candidates face a tight race.

“I think all of these races are margin of error, at least the ones that we have to win,” Thune said. “And historically, at least if you look at polls, we tend to outperform them.”