So the Latest New York Times Poll Is a Load of Garbage, Right?
Progressive policy ambitions meet practical realities as Americans weigh costs and consequences.
So the New York Times has Greg Abbott down three points to a Democrat in Texas. That’s not a poll, that’s a fever dream. Every other recent survey has the governor ahead, and in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since the 1990s, the Times is asking us to believe this is the race that finally flips.
New Republican Times Editorial Board
The New York Times released a new poll displaying startling numbers for the statewide races across Texas, showing that the long-time governor of Texas Greg Abbott is trailing behind his Democrat opponent by three points.
If accurate, the poll would represent a massive eight-point swing away from other recent polls. TEXAS POLL By NYT/Siena (A+) SENATE 🟦 James Talarico: 51% (+4) 🟥 Ken Paxton: 45% (-2) —— GOVERNOR 🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 49% (+5) 🟥 Greg Abbott (i): 46% (-5) 9/21-30 | LV | (+/- vs June) https://t.co/afRJdaYbvp pic.twitter.com/b8qXSz6TPY Texas Governor polls (since 9/4) 9/30 (NYT/Siena): 🔵 Hinojosa +4 9/28 (Beacon/Shaw): 🔴 Abbott +5 9/26 (Big Data Poll): 🔴 Abbott +5 9/24 (Stratus Intel): 🔴 Abbott +5 (R sponsor) 9/22 (Slingshot): 🔴 Abbott +4 9/20 (Marist): 🔵 Hinojosa +3 9/19 (TSU): 🔴 Abbott +4 9/14… Of course, there seems to be a problem with this shocker.
Onlookers have pointed out that the poll is heavily slanted in favor of Democrats in its methodology. The sample, which was only 600 respondents strong, was overpopulated with third-party voters in 2024 and was heavily skewed away from Trump supporters.
New York Times/Siena Texas poll where Greg Abbott trails Gina Hinojosa by 3 points is just Trump +7 on recall in a Trump +14 state and has 13% of 2026 likely voters as 2024 non-major party voters. This almost impossible, of course, in real life.
The sample has him losing women.… pic.twitter.com/YrvK7PIobT And would you have ever guessed that the margin-of-error in these polls would be laughably large? For Senate races across the country, the New York Times poll has written in a six to seven point margin-of-error.
Coincidentally, they have James Talarico up by six points over Ken Paxton where they claim he will have historic shifts across the state, but under preform in the Democratic Socialist Republic of Austin.
Do you think we could get larger margins of error in this trash? You mean to show me 6 and 7 point leads in TX and AK while still putting both outcomes in the margin of error window? So it could be Paxton 50-47 and Sullivan 48-45 but who cares?
Let’s make up Democrat leads so… pic.twitter.com/GrXcQxDlmW I don’t pretend to know if Cohn counts the whole media market as these regions but Talarico is apparently underrunning Beto in Austin (by 11) but doing better in rural Texas by 17 and of course winning the largest margin in Houston ever (D+37 shift) Why bother releasing it lol https://t.co/xZrNLwCmw0 pic.twitter.com/SkjiTCMHuE If someone honestly thinks that Abbott is going to lose, let alone by three points, I have a couple of nice ocean front properties to sell them.
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New Republican Times Editorial Board
So the New York Times has Greg Abbott down three points to a Democrat in Texas. That’s not a poll, that’s a fever dream. Every other recent survey has the governor ahead, and in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since the 1990s, the Times is asking us to believe this is the race that finally flips. It’s a swing of eight points out of thin air, and they expect us to take it seriously.
There’s a pattern to these things. The Times cooks up a poll with a sample that leans heavily Democratic, finds the result that fits the narrative, and runs it as news. Texas voters know better. Abbott has real vulnerabilities, sure, but he’s not losing to a Sacramento progressive who thinks Texas should be more like California. The state didn’t suddenly become New Jersey. The poll is an outlier because it was designed to be one.
We’re not saying the governor should ignore it. Campaigns that dismiss every bad poll end up surprised on Election Day. But this is the same paper that told us the red wave was a trickle in 2022, and Congress still went Republican. Trust the fundamentals, not the Times’ wishcasting. If Abbott’s lead is evaporating, they’ll have to show more than one rigged sample to prove it.
At some point, people stop believing the New York Times when it comes to red-state politics. This is just another installment. The poll is garbage, and they know it. Republicans in Texas should keep working like they’re behind. But they shouldn’t lose sleep over a survey that looks like it was written before the election, not measured after it.
Commentary written with AI assistance by the New Republican Times Editorial Board.