Talarico leads Paxton for Texas Senate while Hinojosa trails Abbott in governor's race: Poll

A poll showing Ken Paxton trailing a Democrat in Texas should set off alarm bells in Austin, and it should have set them off a long time ago. This isn't some fluke of a bad sample. Paxton has spent years dragging his own baggage into every race he touches, from the impeachment fight to the personal scandals that never quite go away. Republicans in Texas have a governor cruising to another term against Gina Hinojosa in the same poll, which tells you this isn't a state turning blue. It's a state that's tired of one particular candidate.

That distinction matters, and Texas GOP leadership needs to sit with it instead of waving it off as noise. James Talarico is a credible, well-liked figure who knows how to talk to voters outside the base. Paxton, whatever his legal victories and culture-war credentials, comes with more baggage than most statewide candidates could survive. Voters aren't rejecting conservative governance here. They're weighing whether a specific, deeply compromised messenger deserves another six years with the keys.

There's a lesson in the contrast between these two races that Republicans elsewhere should take seriously too. Abbott isn't running from his record, he's running on it, and it's working. Paxton is running from his, and it isn't. If the party wants to hold this seat, it might be time to ask whether the smartest move is sticking with a nominee who keeps handing Democrats an opening, rather than assuming Texas red is enough to paper over everything else.