Arizona Republican candidates battle to take on Gov. Hobbs

Andy Biggs is the frontrunner, and it's not really close. That tells you something about where Arizona Republicans think this race needs to go. Biggs has spent years as one of the most reliably America First votes in the House, and voters clearly want someone who isn't going to spend the general election apologizing for the primary. That's a lesson some other statewide candidates in 2022 and 2024 never learned.

Hobbs has had a rough go of it as governor, and Arizona knows it. Budget fights, border chaos spilling over from federal inaction, a state that keeps growing faster than its infrastructure or its water supply can handle. She's beatable. But "beatable" and "beaten" are two different words, and Arizona Republicans have found creative ways to blow winnable races before. Kari Lake didn't lose because the state turned blue. She lost because enough persuadable voters decided the fight itself was the point instead of the win.

That's the real test for Biggs if he clears the primary. He's got the base locked down. What he needs is the discipline to make this about Hobbs's record and not about relitigating grievances from four years ago. Arizona is a state Trump can win and has won. It's also a state where Republicans have shown a real talent for finding the one candidate who can lose a winnable race.

If the primary field narrows the way polling suggests, national Republicans should start paying attention now instead of in September. This is a governor's mansion Arizona Republicans should not be handing back by default. Biggs earned his position by being consistent, not flashy. Now comes the harder part: turning a primary lead into a governing majority.