David Crowley Says Wisconsin Primary Polling Is Wrong. Is He Right or Wishcasting?

David Crowley dropping out of the governor's race in July because his own campaign couldn't find a path to victory, and now insisting five days out that the polls showing him behind are wrong, is the kind of thing that should make Wisconsin Democrats nervous rather than hopeful. This isn't a guy with a fresh read on the electorate. This is a guy whose last read on the electorate was so bad he quit before voters even got a say.

The Rodriguez endorsement makes it worse, not better. Crowley backed her, she cratered, and now he's telling reporters he sees a path Francesca Hong's supporters apparently don't. At some point "trust my gut" stops being a campaign strategy and starts being a pattern. Two misreads in one cycle isn't bad luck. It's a track record.

What's actually happening here is a moderate Democrat trying to talk himself into relevance against a Democratic Socialist who has real energy behind her, and doing it with the same confidence that already cost him once. Polling can be wrong. It happens. But the burden is on Crowley to explain why this time is different, not just assert it five days before voters decide. So far all he's offered is vibes.

If Hong wins Milwaukee's primary running as an open socialist while a sitting county executive gets steamrolled trying to play it safe up the middle, that tells you something about where the energy in that party actually sits right now. Crowley calling the polls wishcasting might end up being the most self-aware thing said in this race, just not in the way he means it.