Democrat Josh Turek trails Republican Ashley Hinson by 3 points: Poll

A three-point race in Iowa should tell Republicans something, and it isn't good news dressed up as good news. Ashley Hinson is a sitting congresswoman with a national profile, running against a state legislator in a wheelchair-basketball Paralympian who most Iowans outside his district had never heard of a year ago. That race should not be inside the margin of error. The fact that it is says less about Turek and more about how soft the ground has gotten under Republicans in a state that Trump carried by double digits twice.

Emerson polls aren't gospel, and 45-48 with 7% undecided is not a crisis. But it's also not the cushion anyone drew up when Hinson jumped into this Senate race. Iowa Republicans have gotten used to treating the state as settled business, and settled business has a way of turning into a wake-up call in October. Chuck Grassley isn't walking through that door forever, and the bench behind him needs to actually win competitive races, not just talk about how red the state used to be.

None of this means Hinson loses. She's still ahead, she has the fundraising network, and Iowa hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since Tom Harkin retired. But Republicans who wave off a three-point poll because the pollster or the sample size gives them an excuse are doing exactly what got several winnable Senate seats blown in 2022. Take the race seriously now, while there's still time to close whatever gap actually exists, instead of explaining it away in November.