Democrats face uphill battle in Maine while gaining in other

Susan Collins is a political survivor, and the new Times/Siena poll suggests she'll need every bit of that talent. The senior senator from Maine holds a narrow lead over Troy Jackson, which on its face sounds like good news for Republicans. But the same poll shows Democrats ahead in two other key Senate races, and the party is already talking about a wave. A narrow lead is not a comfortable lead. Anyone who has watched Maine politics knows Collins has won before by being exactly who she is, not by chasing the national mood.

What makes this race worth watching is how little Jackson seems to offer beyond partisanship. He's a familiar type: union background, populist language, but his campaign has largely been a referendum on Washington, not a coherent case for why Maine should send him there. Collins has her detractors, sure. But in a state that likes its independents and ticket-splitters, the blue wave has limits. That's the detail the national press keeps missing while they chart Democratic gains elsewhere.

Those gains are real, and Republicans shouldn't dismiss them. But "two key Senate races" is not a mandate, and polling in October has a way of lying to everyone. Collins has been counted out before and survived because she runs local, not national. Jackson is running as the opposite of her, which works in a Democratic primary year — not necessarily in a general election in Maine. The question is whether Democrats are overreading their own enthusiasm. We suspect they are, and Collins is proof that the old rules still apply in places where voters actually know their candidates.