James Talarico Leads Ken Paxton in New Poll, but It's Not Over Yet

A poll showing a Texas Democrat ahead of Ken Paxton should worry Republicans, but not for the reasons most people will assume. This isn't some blue wave breaking over the Lone Star State. It's a candidate quality problem, and Paxton has been generating that problem for years now, through impeachment proceedings, a state bar suit, and a personal life that's provided Democrats with more material than any opposition researcher could invent.

Talarico is a good candidate for the other side. He's disciplined, he's from a swing district, and he knows how to talk about faith and family in a way that doesn't sound like it was written by a consultant in Georgetown. That's a real threat in a state where Republicans usually win by showing up. But a single poll months before a primary, let alone a general, tells you about momentum, not destiny. Texas hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and demographic change has been "about to flip Texas" for two decades running without actually doing it.

Still, Republicans in Texas should take the warning seriously instead of waving it off with the usual "polls were wrong before" comfort food. Cornyn's seat matters, and if the primary produces a nominee this damaged, the state party is gambling with a seat it shouldn't have to worry about at all. There are stronger Republicans on that bench who don't carry Paxton's baggage into a general election. This is a fixable problem. It just requires Texas GOP voters to actually fix it before November does it for them.