Republicans face brutal midterm headwinds. Six forces could help

Six weeks out, the usual midterm doom memo is making the rounds. Rising gas prices, a 39 percent Trump approval rating, redistricting fights, all of it served up as proof Republicans are about to get shellacked. Maybe. Or maybe the memo writers are reading their own polling oversamples again. The real picture on the ground looks a little more stubborn than the narrative.

Start with gas. Prices at the pump are a tax on every working family, and the party that killed the Keystone pipeline and pushed green mandates doesn't get to play innocent when the bill comes due. Voters have a way of sorting that out. The economy is always a referendum on the folks in charge. If Republicans spend the next six weeks explaining the cause and offering real relief, they’ll be fine. If they run from the issue, they’ll deserve what they get.

As for Trump, 39 percent is a number some pollster printed. The number that matters is the enthusiasm gap in the early-vote states. He’s not on the ballot, but his movement is, and the energy at rallies doesn’t look like a party in retreat. The left obsesses over his polls because they can’t beat him at the ballot box. And the redistricting wars? Every side draws lines to win. Treating that as a fatal GOP problem is a little rich coming from the party that gerrymandered its own way into minority status.

The next six weeks are a choice, not a verdict. Republicans can treat headwinds as a forecast or a challenge. A forecast gets you a plane seat, a challenge gets you a majority. We know which one this crowd usually picks, and so do the voters.