Russia can’t attack NATO this year but plans to boost its own forces, an intelligence chief says
European security questions expose tensions between alliance obligations and American interests.
Russia “can’t” attack NATO soon, so the real story is years away. That framing invites complacency and treats capability like a calendar, as if Moscow needs a formal start date to pressure Europe and test the West. Conservatives should read this differently.
New Republican Times Editorial Board
A senior European intelligence chief says Russia cannot launch an attack on NATO this year or next but is planning to increase its forces significantly along the alliance’s eastern flank, depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
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New Republican Times Editorial Board
Russia “can’t” attack NATO soon, so the real story is years away. That framing invites complacency and treats capability like a calendar, as if Moscow needs a formal start date to pressure Europe and test the West.
Conservatives should read this differently. Russia is already attacking in the ways that matter short of tanks crossing borders: sabotage, cyber disruption, energy coercion, and probing air and sea encounters. If Moscow is building forces on NATO’s flank, the question is whether Europe will match that with credible deterrence or keep outsourcing hard power to Washington.
The right posture is America First realism: support NATO where it strengthens national security, but insist on fair burden-sharing and institutional seriousness. The principle at stake is simple: deterrence works only when the costs are clear and the will is believable.
Commentary written with AI assistance by the New Republican Times Editorial Board.