Sherry Robinson: New poll declares ‘dead heat’ between Haaland and Hull

A campaign-funded poll saying the campaign's candidate is suddenly tied should always get a raised eyebrow, and we'll give Sherry Robinson credit for at least noting that up front. But the timing here is what makes this interesting. Miyagishima, a Democrat who quit his own party's brand to run as an independent, drops out and throws his support to Hull, and within days Hull's camp has numbers showing a dead heat. That's not proof of anything shady. It's just the kind of coincidence that makes you want to see the crosstabs before you believe the topline.

Still, dismiss it at your own risk. New Mexico Democrats have treated statewide races like foregone conclusions for years, and Haaland carries a famous name and a national profile that Republicans can't match with money alone. If a 400-person sample commissioned by Hull's own campaign is even in the neighborhood of accurate, that says something about how much oxygen Miyagishima's exit actually took out of the Democratic coalition. A former Democrat mayor deciding the better home is with the Republican, in a state Republicans haven't won statewide in a long time, is not nothing.

The honest answer is nobody knows yet whether this race is close or whether Hull's pollster just found the number his client wanted. What we do know is that New Mexico voters have been sold "safe blue state" for a while now, and a defection like Miyagishima's is exactly the kind of crack that turns into something bigger if Hull's campaign can actually capitalize on it instead of just polling about it.