What in the World Is Going on in This New Hampshire Democrat Primary

Two candidates named Shaheen and Sullivan racing each other toward the left edge of the map tells you everything about where the Democratic base actually is right now, whatever the DNC's messaging consultants keep telling reporters about a "move to the middle." Stefany Shaheen isn't some backbench nobody. She's got a name that has run New Hampshire politics for two decades. If the safest bet in that family's political calculus is to out-progressive her primary opponent rather than build toward the center, that's not a fluke. That's market research.

What's funny is how predictable this is every single cycle. A seat opens up, national Democrats want a "electable moderate," and then the actual primary electorate shows up and rewards whoever promises the most. Nobody forces these candidates to do this. They're reading the room they actually have to win, not the general election room the consultants wish existed.

The eventual nominee will spend the fall trying to memory-hole whatever positions get them through this primary, and national reporters will dutifully cover the reinvention as if it's news. New Hampshire's 1st is competitive. Whoever comes out of this fight is going to have a paper trail, and voters there aren't going to forget it just because a general election press shop starts calling their candidate a moderate in October.