Talarico holds slight lead in Texas Senate race poll

Any Democrat leading a statewide Texas race by three points is news. But before anyone books the victory party in Round Rock, look at the actual poll. It’s registered voters, not likely voters. It has 8 percent undecided and a Libertarian in the mix. That is not a firewall, and it’s not a mandate. It’s a snapshot with a built-in shiver, which is about what you’d expect in a state still figuring out how to react to Ken Paxton’s stubborn, litigious style.

Talarico’s appeal is easy to understand. He’s young, he’s a sharp speaker, and he wears his faith on his sleeve in a way that makes some suburban moderates feel comfortable. Fine. But his record in Austin is still a Democratic record: tax-and-spend instincts, loose on crime, and no real plan for a border he treats as an inconvenience rather than a crisis. Paxton has real negatives, too. We’re not pretending otherwise. But he’s also the guy who’s spent years taking the left’s worst legal theories to court and winning enough of them to matter. People know what they’re getting with him. Talarico is the nicer-sounding version of the same old Texas Democratic sales pitch.

Republicans shouldn’t panic, but they shouldn’t shrug either. A three-point margin means the race is competitive because the left has found a candidate who can smile while advancing the same policies Texans keep rejecting. The cure for that isn’t whining about the media buildup. It’s remembering that Paxton has been written off before and kept fighting. If conservatives sit this one out, Talarico wins. If they show up, this poll looks silly by November.